Introduction & Numbers - Practice, Percentages & Strokes Gained

The 18th Fairway at Panther Creek Country Club

My name is Marcus Schantz. I am a 48-year-old attorney, trying to qualify for the Tour of Champions (50 and older) within five years. My goal isn't to be on TV earning millions. I just want want to get to the final qualifier at the yearly PGA tournament or any individual tournament, because I would have to surrender my amateur status when I make it to that level, and thus be a pro. 

My history with golf is that I was exposed to the game when I was a boy. I loved it from the beginning, but was never given lessons or allowed to play on a course. We didn't have that kind of money. I goofed around in high school and played some. Then in my early-to-mid twenties I finally started playing seriously and within a few years was easily scoring in the low-to-mid 80s from the white tees. But I had to stop golfing. I had a child. Then college. Then law school and so forth. I began playing again this summer after almost 25 years away. 

The beginning was rough. My first round in June was probably around 120. I kept practicing a LOT and a few weeks ago scored a 79 from the blue tees. I followed it up with an 80. But I realize, however, that those were exceptional rounds and not indicative of true present ability. I recently joined a local country club so I can play and practice from the range as much as I want. On many days I'm at the course in the morning and again in the evening. All in all, right now, it's about 20 hours per week at the course. 

What follows might seem strange for a first post, but I chose this content to illustrate the seriousness of my approach. 

The strokes gained approach

Recently, I became aware of the strokes gained approach after hearing Brooks Koepka and Rory McIlroy saying they had so many strokes gained off the tee and so many putting. I had no idea what they were talking about, so I looked it up, saw the brilliance behind it and jumped right in. 

This approach involves a lot of math, but it's essentially this: you are scored in four different categories: tee shots, approach shots, short game shots and putting. In other to make these calculations you have to record the distance from the pin and the lie of every shot. Then your numbers are crunched and compared to whatever benchmark you select, such as PGA, scratch, -5 handicappers and so forth. I compare my play to PGA tour averages. At the end of this post I will explain why. 

So, if you're two-strokes gained off the tee overall, it means your driving, on average, is accounting for two of your strokes in your below average scoring against the rest of the PGA. Let me explain. Consider a PGA average score of 69 and a golfer who averages 65 with two-strokes gained from the tee. He is four strokes under average, so two of those strokes are coming from his tee shots. But you can compare round-to-round, tournament-to-tournament and so on. In other words, you could have an exceptional round where your putting was brilliant and be strokes gained (or ahead) of PGA tour averages, but one round isn't enough data to really see where your game is. Not until you play many rounds does the picture finally become clearer. 

The brilliance of this system is that it quantifies your performance in these four categories. The numbers will easily show you where your deficiencies lie. Some people will say, "It's always obvious to me what I need to work on. If I'm not hitting fairways, I need to work on that." This seems logical but it's incorrect nonetheless. He's missing fairways but how many strokes per round are those missed fairways costing? Ask him that and he will have no idea. Using the strokes gained method will give you that number. I'll soon come back to this.

Just playing probably won't make you a great golfer

The other day I met this man in the clubhouse and we got to talking about golf. He said, "My handicap has been stuck for about 10 years." What this means is: he's not getting any better. Then he said, "I can't figure it out. I've been playing for 40 years and I think by now I'd be better."

I said, "How much time do you spend on the driving range or the chipping or putting green?"

"Well, I'll hit a few balls and make a few putts before a round."

I just smirked sympathetically as if to say, "Well, that's life."

The top tier professional golfers practice a LOT. They are always trying to get better. And, as golf goes, each golfer will typically have a part of their game they're not happy with. I practice more than I play. Why?

Because just playing rounds isn't going to make me a better ball striker. The man in the clubhouse believes the opposite. A defective swing--rather than being corrected through practice--will only be reinforced over time. 

Why practice is the way to lower scores

Consider a golf ball in a green side sand trap. The goal: hit out of the trap close enough to the hole so that the next shot is an easy high-percentage putt.

My own progression with sand shots has been this: First shot doesn't clear and stays in the sand. Second shot clears but goes over the green on the other side. Then, first shot clears and goes over the green on the other side. Then shot clears and lands on the green but came out on a line way off where I was aimed and is thus a LONG way from the hole, leaving a very low percentage putt. 

Presently, my sand shots are coming out on the right line but that's the extent of my control. If I leave myself a 20ft putt, the chance of me making it are low. Pro golfers will only make that putt 15% of the time. Getting the ball to stop so the putt is 3-4 feet is going to require more work than all of the other steps combined!

A strategy to just avoid sand traps isn't a strategy at all. No one intentionally shoots the ball into a trap. But they go there. For EVERY golfer. 50% of the time a top-tier pro will get that ball out of the sand and in the hole in 2 strokes. They do this by getting the ball close enough to make an easy putt (there will be some random putts made from longer distances).

Since the pros only do this 50% of the time, the difficulty should be clear. A decent amateur golfer will almost always get the ball on the green, but without practice that's probably as good as it will get. Rarely will they leave themselves an easy putt. So, every time their ball is in a trap there's a much greater chance (probably at least 85%) that it will take 3 shots to hole it. Expecting your score to get better without putting in the work on these finer points is nonsensical. This is how scores are lowered.

If it takes you 3 total shots from the bunker and you hit two bunkers every round, you're giving up two strokes per round. Cutting it down to one 3 putt and one 2 putt is a big improvement. You only lose 1 stroke and every stroke counts. This is exactly were I am.

Fortunately, I'm not hitting many sand traps right now. I generally will not try to shoot over a bunker onto a green because it's a low percentage shot for me presently. I'm putting very well and haven't 3-putted at all recently. I presently have +1.12 putting strokes gained over PGA averages.

Since my putting number is positive, it means my putting is better than the PGA averages when all range of distances are considered. For example, one of my birdie putts was from about 50ft. The average number of strokes for a PGA tour player to hole the ball from there is 2.14. Since I dropped it in one put that puts me +1.14 strokes gained for that putt.

When the number is negative it means you're below PGA average in score; in other words, you are taking more strokes to complete the round than the pros. I expect this. My overall number when tee shots, approach shots, short game and putting are combined is -9.52. The average of my last eight rounds is 80.2. Rounding to the nearest whole number, deduct 10 from 80 and you get 70 which should be the average PGA score. That's the average, including the winners and those who didn't make the cut. 

The photo above is a screenshot taken from the free Taylor Made app I use to keep track of scoring. It's called, "MyRound Pro." It has course info from probably every course in the US and possibly Europe as well. After every shot you push a button and indicate which club you used. Because of the GPS the app knows the lie and the distance from the pin--this is how strokes gained are calculated. 

Looking at the numbers above the largest negative number is on approach shots. I'm hitting only 40% of greens but 86% of fairways. Approach shots have cost me the most strokes in every one of these eight rounds. But this app allows me to go deeper to find out how I'm losing those strokes.

The first photo shows my performance on approach shots from 100-150 yards. Average PGA tour distance to the pin is 21 feet. Mine is 40 feet. To have real birdie chances I need to get this number as low as possible for obvious reasons. My number here has slowly been going down since I'ver started to shoot for the pin in some cases. 75% of my shots within this range land on the green. 

The next range is 150-200 yards, and the numbers are not so good. From this distance range I am losing almost half a stroke each shot. Only 24% are landing on the green. When Tiger Woods was at his peak performance he excelled at long approach shots. This is a very important part of the game. The clubs I use in this range include: 7-6-5 Irons and 6 Hybrid. Clearly these four clubs need a lot of focused practice to lower my score.  The last range 200-250 yards brings in my 3 Hybrid for the most part. My average landing on the green is only 11%. My app tells me that only 9% of my 3 Hybrid shots reach the green, so obviously I've used at least one other club in this distance range and it was probably my 2 Iron. 

But at this range the stats can be misleading. 89% of shots end up short of the green, and that is often intentional. Trying to get on a protected, small or sloping green from 225 yards out is a very low percentage shot for me. Laying up a little short and relying on my short game is a much higher percentage option. I have only hit the green from this distance range two or three times. Fortunately, I don't have to make many of these shots presently, but if I ever play in a Tour of Champions tournament on a longer course, this range will likely come into play more frequently. Or I could gain another 30-40 yards on my drives. 

Shots from inside 100 yards are scored in the short game. My averages: 75-100 yards--71%; 50-75 yards--88%; 25-50 yards--100%; 0-25 yards--94%. These numbers aren't so bad but the longer ones need to be better. My short game number is -2. So, my short game costs me 2 strokes per 18 holes. Keep in mind that these numbers are from every lie just like approach shots. Obviously, shots from inside of 25 yards are mostly chips and pitches, and these shots are what most people consider their short game. The strokes gained method includes as shots within 100 yards to be the short game. 

Because of the complex mathematics behind this system it's important to remember that just because you miss some fairways and greens it doesn't necessarily follow that you will have negative numbers. The overall numbers are calculated based on your scoring per hole. To read more about this (I highly recommend this book) check it out on Amazon. 

Distance matters

I'm presently playing off the black tees at my club for a total distance of 6,770 yards. Tour of Champions normally play courses in the 6,900 - 7,100 range. We have one more tee that's even further back. From here is where the players on the Korn Ferry tour tee, and that total distance is 7,228 yards. Probably next year, I'll start teeing from back there. I began this summer on the white tees, which are just behind the red tees from where most women tee off. The distance from the white tees is 6,113 yards, so I've added another 657 yards to the course by moving to the blacks. 

What's important about the distance differences is that when you move back to add more yards, much of your game is instantly changed. The tee boxes in many instances are now at different angles, which changes your point of aim and possibly the club. Second shots on par fours and fives will always be longer. Greens on par threes are farther. For example, on our hole 1 from the white tees my second shot was usually a gap wedge. Now, it's a 7 or 8 Iron. Big, big difference. Hole 8, a par three, is 170 from the whites and as much as 235 from the blacks. I have not yet hit this green from the blacks. This hole is almost always a bogey hole for me. 

Back to sand traps and practice

Since I have the confidence in my putter right now, I will shoot to the largest part of the green where I don't have to carry a bunker. In other words, I'm playing the percentages to my favor. 

I will always choose the high percentage shot over the low. Example: I missed the fairway off to the right. I am in the second cut of rough, and to hit the green with my next shot I have to hit the ball over an 80ft tree and a total distance of 140. And the green is narrow where the pin is placed. Miss long and I go into an out-of bounds; miss short and I'm in thick brush. The chances of me making this shot are maybe, at most, 10%. Or, I can punch out and up a little and leave my next shot in the fairway about 100 yards from the pin with a better angle to the pin. My chance of making this shot is 70%. 

Do all golfers analyze their opportunities like this? Anyone in the rough knows they are going to have to hit a perfect shot to get it on the green. And they think, "Well, I'll just have to do my best on this shot." This is not proper thinking for a player wanting to improve his scoring. The odds are heavily against his favor. There's a greater chance he'll not clear the tree and have another shot from the rough, or he might hit a flyer from the rough that blows over the green and costs him a penalty stroke, in which he will have to hit again from the same spot. In other words, the odds are that taking the risky shot will eventually require more strokes to hole the ball compared with the punch-out to the fairway. And it could be many more strokes. 

Let's say it's a par 4. Tee shot goes right. Second shot is a punch out to the fairway. Third shot hits the green. 2 putts put the ball in the hole. Total: 5 for bogey. This is taking your medicine for the errant tee shot and playing smart but playing the percentages in your favor. 

What could happen with the risky shot? You don't clear the tree. You still have a bad lie but now you're behind several smaller trees with low-hanging foliage. You get smart and punch out for your third shot. Fourth get on the green and a 2 putt for a double bogey 6. 

But I do have shots sometimes that don't go where I'm aimed and end up in a bunker. By continuing to practice, I am increasing my chances of getting it in the hole in 2 shots.

Why the strokes gained method is so important to me

This is simple. I've checked recent scores from the pre-qualifiers and qualifiers, and a 66 or 67 is where I need to be fairly regularly before I stand of chance of accomplishing my goal. When my total strokes ahead compared to the PGA tour is about even (meaning my round scores are the same as PGA averages), I'll be about there; assuming I do shoot under par regularly. 

Right now I'm at -10. That means I have to better my average scores by ten strokes. I've given myself five years to do this.